Michael Howard as Tory leader?

Rumours tonight, after Iain Duncan Smith was convincingly, but not humiliatingly, voted out of the Tory party leadership, are that the next Conservative leader will be Michael Howard - apparently unopposed. Now, to some degree, this reflects a growing conviction amongst the Tories that they have to get their house in order, otherwise Labour will win a third term and, if they manage to correct their problems with spin, a fourth.

Now, it’s true that Michael Howard has experience at the highest levels of Government, and he doesn’t suffer from the “who the hell is David Davis anyway?” problem of low recognition that other Tory leadership candidates would. On the other hand, this plays against him when it comes to Labour or LibDem voters.

I think Labour voters don’t particularly mind Anne Widdecombe these days, which is remarkable given how hated she was when she was in office. The major reason, I think, is that she so spectacularly and vitriolically stuck the knife into Michael Howard - her “something of the night” jibe (no, I couldn’t find any primary sources for this) effectively destroyed his leadership campaign, and brought immense glee to all Labour and left-wing LibDem supporters. (Some people are LibDems but are fairly close to the Tories, hence the equivocation in this article.)

Because one thing about Michael Howard that you have to understand is this: for people who remember the last Tory government - and he was Home Secretary in 1992 - Michael Howard is the bugbear, the primary figure of hatred. No matter what you think of David Blunkett or Jack Straw, the Labour Home Secretaries, if you’re in the Labour party you’ll be hard-pressed not to agree with the sentiment “at least they’re better than Howard.” I think Michael Howard was probably the most hated figure of the Tory government that lost, in a landslide, to Tony Blair, and him being the leader of the Tory party will remind all Labour and LibDem supporters of who, exactly, they’re facing.

As I mentioned the other day, even if you’re dissapointed with Labour, as I am, and you’re voting Liberal or, in Scotland, SNP, if you’re still a Labour voter at heart - i.e. you haven’t abandoned the party, the party has abandoned you - then one thing is constant: you hate the Tories. Michael Howard as leader will remind all of these people why they voted Labour in the first place, and I don’t think there’s anything he can do about this.

What remains to be seen is who the next Tory leader is after Howard. If it’s Portillo, who I hear is genuinely chastised and repentent, and could well deliver a convincing message to the country, Labour or the LibDems might be in trouble. If it’s another non-entity like Hague or IDS, well, look forward to seeing the LibDems as the official opposition / minor coalition partner.